ASII - Controls 54% of market share in 4M23

Astra International (ASII) recorded a volume of car sales of 184,722 units during the January to April 2023 period. This number is 2.02% lower when compared to sales volume in the January – April 2022 period, which reached 188,541 units. Quoting car sales data released by Astra on Friday (12/5), when compared on a monthly basis in 2023, Astra's car sales volume during April 2023 decreased by 34.10%, from 52,687 units in March 2023 to 34,717 units in April 2023. Astra's sales for the four months of 2023 are still dominated by the Toyota and Lexus brands, which have reached 107,845 units. followed by Daihatsu in the second highest order of 65,119 units. Overall national car sales during the first four months of 2023 reached 341,311 units. In terms of market share, Astra was observed to record a market share of 54% as of April. As for Astra LCGC, its market share is monitored at 73%. (Source : Kontan). Comment : Astra’s 4M21 market shares at 54.1% arrived within our expectation for ‘23F at 54.5%. The sharp drop in industry 4W sales in acceptable due lesser working days on Ramadhan and Iedul Fitri momentum. As a matter of fact, historical data proven have the same trend which in 5yr average dropped by 39.2%. We expect sales to improve on normalized working days and will positively impacting to to 5M and 6M sales this year. Our ‘23F for industry car sales at 966,753 units was more conservative compared to Gaikindo that has increased its forecast to 1.050.000 units from 975.000 units. Stronger sales likely will continue to triggered by continuing promotions such discount, low dp, longer installment period as well as our expectation on loan yield that has peaked in 1Q23. Maintain overweight for Automotive sector and BUY ASII TP IDR7,350 at 8.9x ‘23F P/E)