ITMG - FY25 inline

ITMG - FY25 inline Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) posted FY25 net profit of USD191 mn (-49% yoy), inline with consensus but pressured by weaker ASP (USD76/t vs USD96/t FY24), higher effective tax (32.2% under PP 18/2025), and softer dividend outlook with payout still low at ~26%. While volumes held up at 24.7 Mt (+3% yoy) and costs declined, earnings quality softened on margin compression and structurally higher tax. Looking ahead, risks skew to the downside as rumors point to a ~35% RKAB cut with uncertain approval timing, implying potential pressure on 2026 volumes and earnings not yet fully priced in, with coal prices and capital allocation as key catalysts. (Source : Company, KBVS Research)