MDKA - 2Q25 missed

MDKA - 2Q25 missed Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) reported a larger 2Q25 net loss of USD12 mn (1Q25: -USD4 mn, 2Q24: USD3 mn), bringing 1H25 losses to USD16 mn (+26.4% yoy), as revenue fell 30% qoq and 36% yoy to USD352 mn, missing estimates on weak copper sales and a pause at HNMI, partly offset by stronger gold ASP. Gold remained resilient with 1H25 EBITDA up 121% yoy, Pani project 67% complete toward 1Q26 start, while copper booked negative EBITDA on lower volumes and higher costs; nickel (NPI) delivered 14% yoy EBITDA growth with a stronger 2H25 outlook post-maintenance. Despite near-term risks from copper margin squeeze and HNMI pause, KBVS maintains a BUY with TP IDR3,300/share, underpinned by long-term growth from Pani, TB Copper, HPAL, and gold assets. (Source : Company, KBVS Research)