BBNI - 1H25 earnings below expectation

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 29 July 2025

BBNI: 1H25 earnings below expectation
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR5,110)

* BBNI's 1H25 net income missed forecasts (-5.6% yoy) at a run-rate of 43% (cons.) and 44% (KBV’s) compared to 48.3%, driven by tighter margin and flat PPoP. Loan grew moderate (+7.1% yoy). Yet, BBNI's funding strategy shines, fueled by a successful deposit mix strategy (CASA surged 12.1% qoq, 18.7% yoy).

* Despite 1H25 NIM compression, BBNI shows resilient asset quality. While NIM guidance was revised down to ≥3.8%, management maintains loan growth (8-10%) and CoC (±1%) targets.

* We've revised our BBNI '25F forecasts lower to reflect weaker-than-expected 1H25 results and anticipated 2H25 headwinds. Our updated model factors in tighter margins from loan yield dilemmas offset by softer funding costs.

* Our re-evaluation of BBNI's valuation using multiple methodologies (GGM, DDM, Single Stage Fair PB, Rolling PB) confirms arrive at BUY recommendation area (≥10% upside). Even with conservative assumptions, the stock's value remains offering attractive upside due to its previous sell-off. We Maintain BUY BBNI, GGM-based TP of IDR 5,110 (1.1x '25F P/B) , while currently at 0.9x ‘25F P/B or at its -1SD of 0.9x.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research