TLKM - 9M25 miss, but B2B and IndiHome cushion the decline

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 4 November 2025

TLKM – 9M25 miss, but B2B and IndiHome cushion the decline
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR3,500)

Margins squeezed despite efficiency improvements in 9M25. 9M25 revenue fell 2.3% yoy to IDR109.6 tn, though 3Q25 posted a slight 0.7% qoq rebound, supported by early gains from market repair efforts. While cash-costs declined 0.7% yoy, the EBITDA margin contracted to 49.6% due to higher O&M and interconnection expenses.

Minor forecast revision as B2B and IndiHome remain resilient. 9M25 data payload was inline at 76.8% of forecasts. However, competitive pressures in both mobile and fixed broadband led to a 0.8% cut in the ‘25F revenue forecast to IDR149.8 tn. IndiHome’s strong urban presence supported 9.4% yoy subscriber growth, while B2B revenue rose 13.6% yoy to IDR11.3 tn. For ‘25F, Telkomsel and B2B revenues are projected to grow 2.2% and 4.0% yoy, respectively. Although total revenue declined 2.3% yoy in 9M25, we expect only a marginal 0.1% drop for 2025, underpinned by solid B2B momentum.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR3,500, based on 4.5x ‘25F EV/EBITDA (-0.5SD of 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research