Automotive - Better monthly sales; 4W inline, 2W above

KBVS Update
Friday, 15 August 2025

Automotive - Better Jul25 monthly sales; 4W inline, 2W above
(Maintain Overweight)

* Despite an exhibition-driven better sales, Indonesia's auto market faced a mixed July 2025. Jul25 Car sales saw a monthly increase but a significant 18.4% yoy decline. Astra's market share grew to 52.5% for the month (better vs Jun25). The 2W market surged 15.3% mom, its best performance this year, but remains down 2.1% for the YTD. EV sales continue to grow rapidly, with Chinese brands dominating the BEV segment while Toyota leads the HEV market.

* GIIAS 2025 saw a record 485,569 visitors, up from 475,084 in 2024. While attendance was high, the quality of visitors is in question, with many suspected to be "Rohana and Rojali" (casual visitors, not serious buyers). However, new vehicle orders (SPK) paint a more nuanced picture.

* A key highlight was the intense price war initiated by several Chinese BEV manufacturers, triggered by the launch of the BYD Atto 1. Last but not least, while the future leader of the domestic automotive market is yet to be decided, the race for market leadership is on and we believe Toyota will maintain its crown against the rise of Chinese EV manufacturers.

* Maintain OW for Automotive sector, and BUY for ASII IJ, SOTP derived TP of IDR 5,850 (7.3x '25F P/E), currently slightly above its -1SD.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research team