Automotive Sector - Strong May25 sales on low based effect

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 17 June 2025

Automotive - Strong May25 sales on low based effect
(Maintain Overweight)

* May25 saw a mom surge in 4W & 2W vehicle sales, driven largely by a low base effect. The 4W sales climbed 18.4% mom, while 2W sales +24.3% mom (flat at 0.1% yoy). However, 5M25 figures remain pressured, with 4W sales down 5.5% yoy (2W: -2.4% yoy).

* Astra fueled a significant 27.8% mom surge in May25 car sales, driven by strong demand for 7-seater favorites Avanza and Zenix, which secured the 1st and 3rd highest sales positions, respectively. Astra's dominance was further evident as its 4W car portfolio claimed the top eight spots in May25 sales. In contrast, non-Astra sales grew at a much slower 7.9% mom, primarily due to sharp declines from BYD & Denza (20.4% mom) and Suzuki (5.4% mom).

* Astra continues its market dominance (56.9%), benefiting from a significant 420bps dip in non-Astra to 43.1%. This decline is attributed to normalized sales following several latest new model introductions, in our view. Demand for non-Japanese EV cars is expected to continue supporting overall non-Astra sales.

* Despite potential muted equity market appetite due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, we expect Astra remains on track to meet our ‘25F 4W and 2W sales projection, which should meaningfully support its auto segment revenue. We maintain OW stance on the auto sector and BUY ASII, SOTP TP of IDR 5,850 * (7.3x ‘25F P/E) , while *currently at 5.7x ‘25F P/E, close to its -1SD of 5.3x.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research