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BBNI - Expecting another solid performance in ‘24F

Akhmad Nurcahyadi 07 Februari 2024

KBVS Update
Wednesday, 7 February 2024

BBNI - Expecting another solid performance in ‘24F
(Maintain BUY; TP: 6,530)

•    Other things being equal, 2024 should become another year for BBNI. We forecast ‘24F earnings could reach IDR23.9tn (14.7% yoy) supported by our expectation on stable NIM and better cost to income as well as provision expenses which likely to remain low.

•    Post recorded loan growth at 7.6% yoy, we believe BBNI loan growth this year could arrive higher year-on-year, amid the challenging situation given the continuing weak commodity price. The bank expecting loan growth to hover within the range of 9.0-11.0% yoy. Our ‘24F loan growth for BBNI is 10.42% yoy which we believe will continue to be supported by private corporate.

•    Total TPF higher growth will be driven mainly by ’23 low base figure at IDR810.7tn (5.4% yoy). We also view that the 4Q23 growth recovery should translated as a sign of potential pick up trend. Worth noting that we also think that 2H24 growth possibly better than 1H24. In all we expect TPF to record around 17bps higher.

•    Aside from loan growth guidance, the bank also expects to post NIM and CoC at more than 4.5% and below 1.4% and in-line with our forecast on the ratio for BBNI at 4.62% (NIM) and 1.39% (CoC), respectively. Continuing asset quality improvement will play significant role and targeted NPL below 2% will underpinned BBNI’s ‘24F CoC guidance (KBVS ‘24F NPL for BBNI at 1.92%). We believe BBNI’s ‘24F guidance are achievable.

•    Maintain BUY. The stock has provided gain of 23.2% in 1YR period and rose by 6.5% since our latest report published on 29 Jan ‘24. Our new assumptions on higher sustainable growth rate, risk free rate and higher normalized growth as well as higher-than-expected FY23 result has resulting to a higher DDM TP of IDR6,530 (pegged at 1.4x ‘24F P/B) while its currently trading at 1.3x ‘24F P/B, or below its +1SD historical mean.

 

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research team

Unduh

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