BRMS - Pushback Completed, Poised for Golden Future
KBVS Update
Monday, 4 May 2026
BRMS – Pusback Completed, Poised for Golden Future
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR1,060)
■ Higher prices offset pushback operation impact. BRMS reported 1Q26 revenue of USD69 mn (+5.6% QoQ, +9.7% YoY), supported by higher ASPs, despite a slight decline in sales volume due to pushback operations at the River Reef mine. At the nottom line, net profit increased by +44.8% QoQ to USD18 mn, though it came in below our estimates (19.7%) and consensus expectations (18.4%).
■ Key catalysts are set to drive BRMS' growth: (1) the completion of pushback activities at River Reef by May–June '26, (2) the expansion of the 1st CIL plant at Citra Palu Mineral, increasing its capacity from 500 tpd to 2,000 tpd by Oct '26, (3) the underground mining project, expected to deliver higher gold grades of 3.5–4.9 g/t by 4Q27F, (4) exploration upside from Gorontalo Minerals with an expanded drilling program, and (5) continued exploration across other assets like SHS, LMR, and DPM, strengthening BRMS' multi-asset growth profile. These initiatives are expected to boost BRMS' gold production to 76koz (+6.1% YoY) in FY26F.
■ Revised gold price outlook. We have revised our gold price outlook for FY26–28F to USD4,800/4,850/4,900 per oz and silver to USD70/71/73 per oz, reflecting strong market sentiment and ongoing volatility in precious metals. Based on these assumptions, we forecast revenue growth of +46.5%/+25.0%/+107.0% YoY, driven by higher ASPs, increased production, and improved ore grades from underground operations. We project EBITDA of USD177/229/489 mn for FY26–28F, with net profit reaching USD92/124/285 mn.
■ BUY with TP IDR1,060/ sh. We maintain our BUY recommendation for BRMS with a SOTP-based target price of IDR1,060/share, offering 35.9% upside, driven by strong earnings visibility and potential from rising gold prices. Currently BRMS trade at FY26F P/E of 70.9x and EV/EBITDA of 37.5x is justified by the ongoing CIL ramp-up and the expected contribution from underground mining. Key risks include gold price volatility amid geopolitical uncertainty and potential project execution delays.
Regards,
Ashalia Fitri – KBVS Research