BSDE - Strong 4Q Beat, FY26F Normalization Ahead

KBVS Update
Monday, 9 March 2026

BSDE - Strong 4Q Beat, FY26F Normalization Ahead
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,000)

Strong 4Q beat; FY25 earnings weighed by base effects. 4Q25 revenue jumped to IDR4.0 tn (+69.7% qoq), lifting FY25 revenue to IDR12.8 tn and beating forecasts on faster handovers and stronger land sales. FY25 net profit fell 41.6% yoy to IDR2.5 tn due to higher interest costs and a high FY24 base from the SMDM gain.

FY26F outlook: normalization with resilient margins. Lower short-term contract liabilities (-29% yoy) signal softer revenue recognition in FY26F after the strong FY22-FY24 handover cycle. We forecast FY26F revenue at IDR13.0 tn (+1.7% yoy), with development revenue +1.6% yoy and recurring income steady at IDR1.8 tn (+2.4% yoy), providing earnings support. Margins should remain resilient, with strong landed-housing profitability offsetting softer commercial and land sales. We project FY26F gross margin at 65.0% (vs. 63.5% FY25), lifting net profit to IDR2.7 tn (+5.9% yoy) and net margin to 20.7%.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR1,000; valuation remains compelling. Maintain our BUY call with a lower target price of IDR1,000 (from IDR1,200) after trimming our FY26F/FY27F net profit forecasts by 10.9%/2.8% and gross profit estimates by 11.1%/4.3%. The revisions reflect a more cautious demand outlook amid global geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation, and a more hawkish central bank stance, which may weigh on macro property demand. Our valuation is based on a 5yrs DCF (WACC 11.1%, LTG 3.0%), implying 0.5x FY26F P/BV and an 83.4% discount to RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research