Fixed Income Update 13 Nov 2025
KBVS WEEKLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE
Thursday, 13 November 2025
Cautious Optimism as U.S. Shutdown Ends, BI Eyes Stronger 2026 Growth
The record 41-day U.S. government shutdown is nearing an end after the Senate passed a bipartisan funding package (60–40). The deal combines a short-term continuing resolution (CR through January 30, 2026, with full-year funding for key agencies, and now awaits a U.S. House vote expected as early as Wednesday. This development has reduced near-term economic risks and opened further room for risk-on sentiment.
However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, particularly as key economic data releases have been delayed due to the shutdown. These two opposing forces have created a split market reaction, leaving movements in bond yields, the DXY, and equities largely sideways over the past week.
Domestically, Bank Indonesia projects stronger optimism heading into 2026, targeting GDP growth of 5.33%—potentially reaching 5.4%—supported by faster fiscal disbursement, stable inflation at 2.62%, and a credit growth target of 8–12%.
Meanwhile, discussions on Rupiah redenomination have resurfaced, though the plan remains a long-term agenda. Governor Perry Warjiyo reiterated that the Rupiah Redenomination Bill (RUU Redenominasi) will require extensive preparation, with the central bank’s current focus remaining on safeguarding macroeconomic stability and supporting growth.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team