Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 04 Mar 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 3 March 2026
RKAB Delay Compresses January Surplus Despite Firm CPO Demand
Indonesia recorded a surplus of USD0.95 bn in Jan ’26, as export momentum softened while imports accelerated. Total exports grew 3.39% YoY to USD22.16 bn, but the pace was relatively modest compared to the stronger expansion recorded in 2025. The combination of regulatory delays and weaker pricing created a dual drag on coal exports, which in turn weighed on overall mining performance given coal’s significant share in Indonesia’s export structure.
On the import side, total imports surged 18.21% YoY to USD21.20 bn, driven by stronger domestic demand across all major categories. Overall, the surge in imports was broad-based, led by industrial demand while supported by household consumption, highlighting that Indonesia’s economic activity in early 2026 was underpinned by both manufacturing expansion and improving domestic spending.
Looking ahead, once RKAB approvals are fully operational and coal shipments normalize, Indonesia’s external performance should gradually regain strength, underpinned by resilient manufacturing and value-added exports.
Regards,
Fikri C Pemana, Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri - KBVS Research Team