Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 04 Nov 2025
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 4 November 2025
3Q25 Trade Surplus Hits Highest Since 2022, Yet Current Account Deficit Risks Persist
Slightly below expectations, Indonesia’s trade surplus in Sep ‘25 stood at USD4.34 bn, extending its streak to 65 consecutive months. Exports in Sep ‘25 expanded by a robust 11.41% YoY. On the import side, total imports grew 7.17% YoY.
We estimate the 3Q25 CAD to narrow slightly to USD 0.4–1.4 bn, equivalent to 0.11%–0.39% of GDP. Nevertheless, the rise in capital goods imports, which increased 15.92% MoM or 28.02% YoY based on the goods-by-use classification, indicates improving momentum in the domestic manufacturing sector. This aligns with the continued expansion of Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI over the past three consecutive months. However, the uptick in domestic inflation in Oct ‘25, reaching 2.85% YoY.
We project 3Q25 GDP growth at 1.40% QoQ or 5.01% YoY, indicating that while external and investment performance remains strong, domestic demand continues to lag behind. Looking ahead, these conditions are expected to have a modestly positive yet limited impact on domestic financial markets.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team