MDKA - ASP Tailwinds Spark Earnings Turnaround

KBVS Update
Monday, 13 July 2026

MDKA – ASP Tailwinds Spark Earnings Turnaround
(Maintained BUY: TP at IDR3,150)

■ MDKA returned to profitability in 1Q26, generating a net profit of USD57.5 mn against a -USD27.3 mn net loss in the preceding quarter.

■ Gross margin expanded to 35.1% (vs. 8.3% in 4Q25) and EBITDA margin to 40.3% (vs. 12.9% in 4Q25), aided by a steep drop in gold cash costs to USD685/oz from USD1,887/oz in the prior quarter.

■ We forecast FY26/27F revenue of USD3,131/3,739 mn and net profit of USD239 mn in FY26, a clean turnaround from -USD62 mn in FY25, driven by the structural ramp-up of Pani Gold which booked its maiden contribution in 1Q26.

■ We reiterate BUY with TP IDR3,100/share (SOTP; 7.4x FY26 EV/EBITDA, 18.7x P/E) vs. current price ~IDR2,570, implying +20.6% upside.

Regards,
Ashalia Fitri – KBVS Research Team