PWON - Property Demand Remains Soft Despite Recurring-Income Resilience

KBVS Update
Thursday, 11 June 2026

PWON - Property Demand Remains Soft Despite Recurring-Income Resilience
(Maintain BUY - TP: IDR340)

Residential sales remain mired in weakness. We expect development revenue to decline 7.0% YoY to IDR1.4tn in FY26F, as handovers normalize following the strong FY21–FY25 cycle. Demand remains soft, with customer advances flat at IDR600.6bn, indicating limited near-term sales momentum.

Growth outlook moderates amid a challenging macro backdrop. We forecast FY26F net profit to grow 1.2% YoY to IDR2.4 tn; EBITDA margin expansion to 52.8%.

Stable occupancy, but growth remains constrained. Recurring-income should remain the key earnings anchor in FY26F, supported by resilient operations across flagship assets and IDR1.5 tn of unearned revenue. We forecast malls, offices & serviced apartments revenue to grow 2.3% YoY to IDR4.4 tn, underpinned by stable mall occupancy and continued strength at Tunjungan Plaza and Kota Kasablanka.

1Q26 revenue growth increasingly defensive rather than expansive. PWON’s 1Q26 performance highlighted the growing importance of recurring-income, which rose 8.3% YoY and offset softer development sales (-8.0% YoY).

Maintaining BUY; Lowering TP Following weaker 1Q26 results, we trim FY26F estimates to reflect softer property demand and a slower residential recovery amid a prolonged high-rate environment. We lower our TP to IDR340 (from IDR400).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research