TLKM - Lower ‘25 forecast, but B2B momentum remains intact

KBVS Update
Monday, 5 May 2025

TLKM – Lower ‘25 forecast, but B2B momentum remains intact
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR3,200)

1Q25 revenue declines yoy; margins improve qoq on cost control. 1Q25 revenue fell 2.1% yoy, dragged by weaker data revenue & subscriber decline. EBITDA dropped 6.1% yoy but margins improved to 49.8% on lower opex.

B2B growth & stable EBITDA margin offset lower ‘25 forecast. In 1Q25, TLKM's mobile data performance met expectations, but competitive pressures in MBB & FBB segments led to a 1.3% reduction in ‘25 revenue forecast to IDR151.8 tn. B2B segment grew 10.3% yoy, outpacing B2C data growth. TLKM's overall revenue is expected to rise by 1.2% in ‘25, driven by B2B growth. Operational synergies are expected to keep opex growth low, with EBITDA margins projected to remain stable at 50.0%.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR3,200, based on 4.0x ‘25F EV/EBITDA (-1.5SD of 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research