CPIN - Solid 9M25 earnings, came above expectations

KBVS Update
Thursday, 06 November 2025

CPIN - Solid 9M25 earnings, came above expectations 
(Maintain BUY, TP of IDR5,750)

CPIN’ earnings grew significantly higher (+136.7% yoy/+303.1% qoq) in 3Q25 on significantly higher chicken’ ASP with a slight improvement in chicken demand, stable LC prices and low SBM prices, despite weak consumer purchasing power. As a result, CPIN' 9M25 earnings reached IDR3.37 tn (+41% yoy), which came above ours’ (84%) and cons' (84%) expectation.

On quarterly basis, CPIN' business segments performed well, while on yearly basis, only DOC' and other' segment. Thus, CPIN' revenue grew 4.7% yoy/14.2% qoq in 3Q25 on significantly higher chicken’ ASP with a slight improvement in chicken demand, despite weak consumer purchasing power. As a result, CPIN’ revenue grew 1.8% yoy in 9M25 (vs 0.3% yoy in 1H25), which still came in-line with ours’ (72%) and cons’ (73%).

CPIN’ gross’, EBIT’ and net’ margin expanded to 19.1% (+700bps yoy/+870bps qoq), 12.1% (+650bps yoy/+910bps qoq) and 8.3% (+460bps yoy/+590bps qoq), respectively in 3Q25. All in all, CPIN’ net margin expanded by 180bps yoy in 9M25.

We made upward adjustments to our ‘25F and ‘26F for CPIN. We expect CPIN’ earnings to grow by 15.9% yoy to IDR4.3 tn (+7.5% from prior) and 14% yoy to IDR4.91 tn (+7.2% from prior), respectively in ‘25F and ‘26F. All in all, we expect CPIN’ net margin to expand by 60bps yoy and 20bps yoy, respectively in ‘25F and ‘26F on better chicken demand, higher chicken’ ASP, stable raw material prices and better costs management.      

Maintain BUY on CPIN with same TP of IDR 5,750/share, which implies 19.2x ‘26F P/E, as we rollout our valuation to ‘26F. Currently, CPIN is trading at 16.1x ‘26F P/E or at its -1.5stdev of its 5 years’ mean P/E.

Best regards,
Andre Suntono – KBVS Research Team