Automotive Sector - Weak monthly sales continue, yet inline

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 20 May 2025

Automotive – Weak monthly sales continue, yet inline
(Maintain Overweight)

* Indonesia's automotive sector exhibits resilience amidst sluggish sales, aligning closely with our '25F total car sales volume forecast (29.9% run-rate vs. 30.5%). While April '25 saw a significant MoM contraction (-27.8%), YoY growth remained positive at 5.0%, marking a substantial improvement in the 4M25 decline of 2.9% yoy compared to the *sharp 22.7% yoy drop in 4M24. *

* Our decadal seasonal analysis of the Eid al-Fitr effect, comparing total sales in the three months surrounding the holiday, reveals a stable yoy performance at -0.2%, a significant improvement from the -19.6% yoy decline in the same period last year. Comparing this 3-month sales figure to the full year indicates that the pre and post Eid al-Fitr period accounted for 22.7% of total FY sales, consistent with 22.5% last year and the 3-year pre and post COVID averages of 22.9% and 22.3%.

* Regardless the poor growth, we believe Astra market share will continue to dominate the industry landscape competition. We expect total Astra market share at 55.8% this year. On EV market update, total Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) car sales grew reach 23,952 units vs 15,987 units in 3M25. BYD saw the highest monthly growth with 3,496 units sold in Apr '25 making its 4M25 BEV sales to 9,214 units driven by Sealion and M6 types. We believe demand on EV car likely to remain strong and overall will overall underpinned ‘25F total car sales.

* We expect Astra will start to join the competition and capture the momentum. This should strengthened Astra footprint in all auto segment (ICE, Hybrid and EV). Maintain our OW on Auto Sector and BUY on ASII with SOTP TP IDR5,850 (7.3x ‘25F P/E), while currently trade at 6.2x ‘25F P/E or slightly above its -1SD of 5.3x.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research