BBCA - Inline 9M25 earnings amid the continuing pressure

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 21 Oct 2025

BBCA: Inline 9M25 earnings amid the continuing pressure
(Maintain BUY; GGM TP: IDR11,080)

* BBCA's confirm its position as a resilient sector leader, delivering 5.7% yoy earnings growth despite sector pressures. 9M25 earnings came in line with our ‘25F and cons PATMI forecast (76.2%/74.9% ). Total loans grew 7.6% yoy (within guidance and beating our forecast) led by a robust 10.4% increase in corporate segment, with healthy CASA growth (9.1% yoy).

* While consumer segment pressures (driven by a drop in vehicle loans) necessitated a +56.4% jump in provisions (tempering PATMI growth) *, the bank's *operational efficiency remains healthy with PPoP grew 7.9% yoy, supported by NII (+12.4% yoy) and favorable funding mix (TD drop 2.1% yoy).

* Crucially, NIM held flat at 5.8%, yet beating our forecast and in line with BBCA’s guidance. AQ continues to improve, with NPL improving to 2.1% vs 2.2% in 2Q25.

* BBCA simultaneously utilizing a large capital return program * (buyback & dividend) to signal strong management conviction and provide direct support for the stock price*. The bank is well-positioned to meet our ’25F * on *manageable 4Q25 pressure.

* Maintain BUY, GGM-based TP of IDR11,080 (4.8x ‘25F P/B), while currently at 3.4x (below -2SD).

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research