BBNI - Navigating modest growth; inline 5M25 earnings

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 1 July 2025

BBNI - Navigating modest growth; inline 5M25 earnings

* BBNI saw a marginal 1.3% yoy dip in 5M25 bank-only earnings, yet remains inline with ‘25F run-rate (36.8% KBVs / 36.5% cons. vs. 39%). This resilience comes despite moderate loan growth of 6.6% yoy, predominantly fueled by the corporate and consumer segments.

* Total TPF edged up a slight 1.3% yoy, underscoring tighter liquidity and intensified deposit competition. Critically, the SA segment emerged as the key growth driver, boosting CASA by 2.5% yoy.

* Assuming another flat growth in 1H25, earnings at consolidated level to remain inline achieving a run-rate of 46.3% vs. 49.1%. We maintain conviction that BBNI's '25F lower range NIM aspiration is possible, underpinned by manageable loan demand, stable yields, and meticulously managed CoF, primarily driven by sustained strong savings deposit growth.

* Maintain BUY with GGM-based TP of IDR *5,920 (1.2x '25F P/B) *, while currently at 0.9x ‘25F P/B or at its -1SD of 0.9x.

Sincerely,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research