CTRA - Envisioning a new high in marketing sales for 2024

KBVS update
Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024

CTRA IJ -Envisioning a new high in marketing sales for 2024 
(Upgrade to BUY; TP: IDR1,450)

- All-time high marketing sales achievement of IDR10.2 tn (+24% yoy). CTRA’s booked IDR2.45 tn of marketing sales in 4Q23 (+44.6% yoy/-9.6%% qoq). During the quarter, CTRA strategically expanded it’s project portfolio with 2 launches from the new project and one new cluster in an existing project which generated IDR1.5 tn of marketing sales with a 67% take-up rate from 1,241 units. This resulted in FY23 marketing sales at IDR10.2 tn (+24% yoy) and surpassed the upgraded FY23 target of IDR9.8 tn (105% of 2023F target).

- Upgraded our marketing sales forecast to IDR 11tn for 2024F (+7.3% yoy), previously at IDR10.5 tn following the strong marketing sales achievement in 2023F primarily driven by several potential new projects in 2024F.  Hitting the ground running in 2024, CTRA unveiled its first Medan project, CitraLand Sampali Kota Deli Megapolitan. The launch generated IDR844 bn marketing sales.

- Benefited most from the VAT incentives. CTRA is benefited the most from the VAT incentives policy as ~87% of the marketing sales are within the segment, supported with the latest inventory data of IDR1.8tn (IDR0.8 tn of house &shophouse and IDR1 tn of apartment) as well the company could accelerate IDR2.1 tn of house and shophouse inventory. CTRA strategically leveraged the renewed VAT incentive program, implemented in Nov’23, fueling IDR769 bn of marketing sales in 2023.

- Reinitiate BUY with higher TP IDR1,450, using DCF-based TP (WACC: 11.1%; LTG: 3%), which implied to 1.1x ‘24F PB and 71.7% discount to ‘24F RNAV.

Regards,
Benyamin Mikael - KBVS Research team