CTRA - Slower ’25F growth after strong ’24

KBVS Update
Monday, 23 June 2025

CTRA - Slower ’25F growth after strong ’24
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,400)

Strong 1Q25 presales, despite flat full-year outlook. CTRA’s marketing sales in 1Q25 reached IDR 3.2 tn, down 5.0% yoy but hitting 28.7% of ‘25F target, above the 5yrs 1Q average. Presales rose 35.1% qoq from 4Q24, driven by a 48.1% increase in house & land lot sales, boosted by new cluster launches in key locations. However, due to macroeconomic challenges, ‘25F presales are expected to stay flat at IDR 11.0 tn, inline with management guidance but below 24’s 7.6% growth.

‘25F revenue growth to ease to 4.8% after strong ‘24 performance. Short-term contract liabilities fell 8.0% ytd, indicating slower revenue recognition in ‘25F, with total revenue projected to grow modestly by 4.8% to IDR11.7 tn. Real estate revenue growth is expected to slow from 25.1% in ‘24 to 4.6% in ‘25. However, house & shophouse revenue may rise 8.8% to IDR8.8 tn, driven by faster construction. This favorable revenue mix should boost the gross margin to 47.8%.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR1,400. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR1,400, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.2%; LTG: 3%), implying 1.0x ‘25F P/B and 73.1% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research