Fixed Income Update 09 Apr 2026
KBVS WEEKLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE
Thursday, 9 April 2026
Global Geopolitical Tensions and Indonesia’s Fragile Fiscal Outlook
Fluctuations in geopolitical tensions continue to influence global risk sentiment, primarily through pressure on energy prices, inflation expectations, and heightened capital market uncertainty. At the same time, several central banks have shifted from an earlier dovish stance to a more hawkish tone.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Mar ’26 fiscal realization signals early warning signs, as revenue collection trails target while government spending continues to accelerate. This imbalance is pushing the budget deficit closer to its upper limit, raising concerns over fiscal discipline and reducing policy flexibility amid ongoing external volatility.
Under the APBN framework, the fiscal outlook remains manageable but fragile in the base case, while downside risks include weaker growth, softer revenues, and a wider deficit.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team