Indonesia Macro Update - GDP Growth 06 Nov 2023
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 6 November 2023
Anticipating Stronger Economic Growth in 4Q23
As expected, the reduction in economic growth in our trade partner countries and the decline in the trade surplus have led to Indonesia's economic growth in 3Q23 reaching only 1.60% qoq or 4.94% yoy (Cons: 5.00% yoy, KBVS: 4.88% yoy, Prev: 5.17% yoy).
Looking ahead, we anticipate that inflation will remain below 3.0% yoy through the end of 2023. We assume this will also be accompanied by a stronger economic recovery in our major trade partner countries, leading to an improved trade surplus in 4Q23. Furthermore, with the onset of political events until Feb ‘24, coupled with the seasonal year-end also expect increased consumer demand. Moreover, various fiscal stimulus measures are expected to have a positive impact in 4Q23. Consequently, as a whole, we anticipate that economic growth will rebound to over 5.1% yoy in 4Q23.
Fikri C Permana - KBVS Research Team