Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 02 Apr 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Thursday, 2 April 2026
Export Shift to Downstream, Offsets Coal Weakness
Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD1.28 bn in Feb ’26, extending its surplus streak to 70 consecutive months. While total exports grew modestly by 1.01% YoY to USD22.17 bn, the underlying drivers of the surplus have shifted notably. The slow headline export growth was heavily weighed down by a sharp 18.21% YoY decline in coal exports. Fortunately, the weakness in coal was effectively offset by strong non-oil and gas exports, particularly from the manufacturing and downstream sectors. On the import side, growth remained robust at 10.85% YoY, bringing total imports to USD20.89 bn.
Looking ahead, Indonesia's trade performance should remain relatively resilient, supported by downstream exports and a steady manufacturing sector. In addition, the expansion of copper smelter capacity is expected to further strengthen downstream export performance.
Furthermore, as the RKAB coal approvals are now finalized, coal shipments are expected to normalize and provide an additional boost to exports in the coming months. CPO exports are also expected to remain supportive.
However, the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains a key risk to monitor. Higher fuel prices would also make importing raw materials more expensive, particularly squeezing margins in heavily import-dependent sectors such as pharmaceuticals (where over 90% of active pharmaceutical ingredients are imported), basic chemicals and plastics, textiles, and the food & beverage industry (which relies heavily on imported wheat, dairy, and sugar). If coal exports take longer to recover while import costs remain elevated, the monthly trade surplus could narrow further, potentially limiting the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and keeping the Rupiah volatile.
Regards,
Fikri C. Permana & Khairunnisa Nadhifah S – KBVS Research Team