Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 22 Apr 2025
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 22 April 2025
Trade Surplus Continues in Mar ’25, Boosted by Strong Export Performance
Indonesia recorded a trade surplus for the 59th consecutive month in Mar ‘25, reaching USD4.33 bn (Cons: USD2.64 bn, KBVS: USD3.72 bn, Prev: USD3.12 bn). The growth in exports during Mar ‘25 was primarily driven by a significant increase across Indonesia’s top 10 export commodity groups, which collectively rose by 11.62% MoM. Meanwhile, in line with our previous trade balance report, imports of Indonesia’s top 10 non-oil and gas commodity groups declined by -0.56% MoM in Mar ‘25. The continuation of Indonesia’s trade surplus in Mar ‘25 should have served as a positive catalyst for Rupiah appreciation in the near term.
However, with the U.S accounting for a significant portion of Indonesia’s exports and given the difficulty of rapidly finding alternative export markets, Indonesia may face challenges in trade negotiations—particularly in light of the recently reintroduced Trump Tariffs on U.S. imports. Given this context, we expecting Indonesia's negotiating delegation may consider opening access for more imports from the U.S., while also pushing for lower import tariffs on U.S. goods. Nonetheless, this challenge can be turned into an opportunity by expanding U.S. investment in Indonesia and accelerating efforts to diversify Indonesia’s export destinations.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana - KBVS Research Team