Indonesian Macro Update - Trade Balance 02 Jun 2024
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 2 June 2025
Trade Volatility Deepens Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Rupiah Fluctuations
Indonesia’s trade surplus extended its record for 60 consecutive months in April 2025, although it narrowed significantly to USD0.16 bn (Cons: USD3.40 bn; KBVS: USD2.70 bn; Prev: USD4.33 bn). Indonesia's export performance in April 2025 showed a mixed trend, with sharp gains in select commodities like precious metals and machinery, while most others recorded notable monthly declines. Meanwhile, Indonesia's import performance in April 2025 showed a sharp overall increase, mainly driven by precious metals and steel, while oil-related imports declined amid falling global energy prices.
Indonesia’s trade surplus fell sharply in April 2025, likely due to reciprocal tariffs announced by former President Trump during U.S. “Liberalization Day”. The move triggered capital outflows and market uncertainty. Rising imports of precious metals and jewelry signaled a flight to safety, driving up total import value and worsening the trade balance. The situation was further strained by Rupiah depreciation past IDR 16,650/USD, inflating import costs and amplifying the deficit.
Looking ahead, the Rupiah’s appreciation in May 2025 is expected to ease import costs. The 90-day suspension of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs may also bring temporary trade stability. Amid ongoing tensions, Indonesia must stay strategic in export targeting and leverage its position to attract FDI relocations, especially from firms avoiding high-tariff countries and Rules of Origin (RoO) challenges.
Regards,
Fikri C. Permana – KBVS Research Team