ISAT - Improving Monetization, Strengthening Profitability

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 14 July 2026

ISAT - Improving Monetization, Strengthening Profitability
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,500)

2Q26F: Pricing discipline continues to lift data-monetization. We expect ISAT to post another sequential improvement in 2Q26F, supported by sustained ARPU recovery and resilient data yield since 3Q25, reflecting healthier industry monetization and pricing discipline.

Cost-discipline offsets higher network investment. Despite continued network investment lifting cost of services (+3.0% QoQ), we expect disciplined opex management to reduce cash costs (-1.2% QoQ), supporting EBITDA growth of +0.9% QoQ.

FY26F: Data remains the primary growth engine. We maintain our FY26F estimates, driven by sustained data monetization and network enhancement. Data revenue is projected to grow +7.6% YoY to IDR46.7 tn, supported by stable subscribers, +8.3% YoY traffic growth, resilient data-yield and gradual ARPU recovery.

Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR2,500 (3.3x FY26F EV/EBITDA; +0.5SD), as valuation remains attractive amid improving monetization and earnings visibility. Catalysts: further pricing recovery and HBB monetization. Risks: weaker macro demand and higher-for-longer interest rates.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research