Daily Economic Research

KBVS ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Macro Highlight :
President Trump’s signal that the war with Iran could end soon raised hopes of easing supply disruptions, pushing oil prices lower and prompting markets to price in the possibility of two 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Looking ahead, investors will focus on upcoming releases of German CPI, US CPI, and US Crude Oil Inventories, while continuing to monitor geopolitical developments that may influence energy prices and global market sentiment.

Concerns over a widening fiscal deficit following the release of Feb '26 data, which showed the fiscal deficit reaching -0.51% of GDP, continued to weigh on the domestic fixed income market. Nevertheless, as global oil prices begin to ease amid signals from Donald Trump of an intention to move toward ending the war, we expect investor concerns in the fixed income market regarding a potential widening of the fiscal deficit to gradually subside. This shift has already been reflected in the decline in yields across most major markets during yesterday’s trading session.

We anticipate a decrease in the 10Y SUN yield today (11 Mar ‘26), projecting it to range between 6.56% and 6.76%.

 

Regards,
KBVS Research Team

 

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