Daily Economic Research

KBVS ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Thursday, 16 July 2026

Macro Highlight :
The yield on the UST10Y edged lower to 4.55% (Prev: 4.57%) on Wednesday as US producer prices unexpectedly fell by -0.3% MoM (Prev: 0.0% MoM) in Jun '26, while core PPI also eased to 0.0% MoM (Prev: 0.1% MoM), reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. Looking ahead, investors are expected to monitor the release of UK GDP, US Retail Sales, and US Initial Jobless Claims data, alongside ongoing geopolitical developments, as key drivers of near-term market direction.

Improving geopolitical sentiment, alongside continued positive momentum following S&P's affirmation of Indonesia's sovereign credit rating, supported the domestic fixed income market, pushing government bond yields lower, led by SUN1Y (-7.41 bps), SUN5Y (-3.67 bps), SUN10Y (-3.63 bps), SUN15Y (-1.84 bps), and SUN30Y (-0.39 bps). Looking ahead, investors are expected to continue monitoring geopolitical developments as the key driver of near-term market direction.

We anticipate a marginal decrease in the 10Y SUN yield today (16 Jul ‘26), projecting it to range between 7.10% and 7.30%.

 

Regards,
KBVS Research Team

 

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