Daily Economic Research

KBVS ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Monday, 4 May 2026

Macro Highlight :
Easing geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. over the weekend—amid renewed peace prospects under former President Trump’s “Project Freedom”—combined with OPEC+’s agreement to increase production quotas in Jun '26, have created room for a pullback in global oil prices at the start of the week. Looking ahead, alongside geopolitical developments and potential coordinated FX interventions by G7 countries, key drivers for global capital markets today will include the release of manufacturing PMI data across major economies, as well as U.S. durable goods orders.

The rise in global yields ahead of the close of Indonesia’s market last Friday spilled over into the domestic bond market, pushing SUN yields higher across the curve, with the 2Y yield rising by +5.3 bps, the 10Y by +1.9 bps, and the 30Y by +1.0 bps. Coupled with today’s key domestic data releases—including Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI, inflation, and trade balance—these developments may serve as positive catalysts for the fixed-income market in today’s session.

We anticipate a decrease in the 10Y SUN yield today (4 May ‘26), projecting it to range between 6.68% and 6.88%.

 

Regards,
KBVS Research Team

 

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