Morning Chatter

KBVS MORNING CHATTER
Friday, 13 March 2026

Headline News :
•    HMSP - Profit reaches IDR6.6 tn in FY25
•    Automotive – Feb ‘26 car sales surge, Suzuki overtakes Honda-BYD
•    ELSA – Posts IDR14.5 tn (+8.29% yoy) revenue with strong core business growth
•    PYFA – Obtained ISO 45001 certification
•    AVIA – Achieves A+ rating in sustainability report
•    BULL – Acquires second LNG tanker to capitalize on surging global freight rates
•    MDIY – Allocated IDR720.0 bn capex for 270 new stores in FY26

Market Commentary :
US indices closed lower yesterday (12/03); DJIA (-1.56%), S&P 500 (-1.52%) and IXIC (-1.78%) as the conflict in Middle East continues, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about inflation and whether the Fed will cut rates. Moreover, the Iranian strikes on two oil tankers sent crude prices surging to around USD100 per barrel, further exacerbating inflation fears and sending investors fleeing equity markets. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social service (his owned social media platform) that the US is benefiting from higher oil prices as the country is the largest oil producer in the world. US economic data showed the US trade deficit narrowed sharply to USD54.5 bn in Jan'26, with exports jumping to a record high (USD302.1 bn) and imports falling (USD356.6 bn). While, US labor market reported that its weekly initial jobless claims was better than anticipated at 213k (vs 214k). Thus, both USD index and US 10-Y bond yield were up to 99.74, and 4.27%, respectively, yesterday. Now, the market awaits for US' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data, that will be released later today.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed 0.61% lower yesterday dragged down by banking sector as the market struggled with a surge in oil prices due to the war in the Middle East between US & Israel vs Iran, which brought concerns about inflation and could slow economic growth. Now, the market is pricing in a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike by July'26, with an 87% probability of another increase by Dec'26. On commodities, both Brent crude futures and US WTI rose to USD100.46 per barrel and USD95.7 per barrel, respectively yesterday, as the Iranian stated that the critical Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Moreover, Iraq and Oman have closed their oil terminals, after Iranian strikes on two oil tankers.
Most indices in Asia closed lower yesterday, including JCI (-0.37%), but with IDR1 bn net foreign inflow. Today, the JCI could continue to close lower due to stronger USD and higher global oil prices, amid rising geopolitical tensions due to war in the Middle East.

Regards,
KBVS Research Team

 

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