SMRA - Faces contraction in ‘25F after impressive ‘24

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 24 June 2025

SMRA - Growth momentum eases after impressive ‘24
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR470)

3M25 presales up, eyes IDR5.0 tn target for ‘25F. SMRA booked IDR877 bn in 3M25 marketing sales (+8.3% yoy), supported by strong demand in Serpong and Bogor. Presales fell 48.6% qoq from a high 4Q24 base due to concentrated launches linked to the new presidential administration.

Projects a 29.9% fall in net profit in ‘25F as growth normalizes. SMRA’s strong 2022–2024 performance sets a high base, leading to slower growth in ‘25F. Revenue is projected to drop 21.9% yoy to IDR8.3 tn, mainly due to weaker property development (-32.6% to IDR5.1 tn) following sharp gains in ‘24. Recurring revenue is expected to rise 3.9% to IDR3.2 tn, supported by mall contributions. Gross margin is seen narrowing to 50.2%, with net profit down 29.9% to IDR963.4 bn, slightly below consensus.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR470. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR470, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.3%; LTG: 3%), implying 0.7x ‘25F P/B and 88.3% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research