AMRT - Surviving 3Q25F, with a potentially better condition in 4Q25F

KBVS Update
Wednesday, 22 October 2025

AMRT - Surviving 3Q25F, with a potentially better condition in 4Q25F
(Maintain BUY, with TP of IDR3,050)

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT) will surely continue to open new stores in outside Java area and expand its membership base in order to boost sales. AMRT also has anticipated softer sales in 3Q25F due to weak purchasing power and fewer catalysts. Thus, AMRT’ revenue could reach IDR30.8 tn (+6.1% yoy/-0.9% qoq) in 3Q25F or around 23.5% of our ‘FY25F revenue.
Yet, consumers’ purchasing power is expected to improve in 4Q25F, supported by IDR30 tn in government direct cash aid for community welfare and seasonal catalysts such as Christmas and year-end festivities. Thus, AMRT’ revenue could reach IDR36.3 tn (+21% yoy/+18.1% qoq) in 4Q25F or around 27.7% of our ‘FY25F revenue. As a result, we expect AMRT’ revenue to reach IDR67.1 tn in 2H25F or 13.7% higher than 2H24’ revenue.      
AMRT will surely continue its efforts to improve efficiency, i.e. 2 DCs now operate with a single shared back office instead of maintaining separate ones. AMRT also continue to implement controlled promotions to improve sales and product mix. All in all, we still expect AMRT’ earnings to reach IDR1.75 tn in 2H25F or 29% higher than 2H24’ earnings, with net margin to reach 2.6% or 30bps higher than 2H24’ net margin.
Thanks to higher sales of non-food products and better margin from outside Java stores, AMRT’ revenue and earnings reached IDR63.81 tn (+7.8% yoy) and IDR1.88 tn (+5% yoy), respectively in 1H25, amid weaker purchasing power. As a result, AMRT' revenue and earnings in 1H25 still came in-line with our expectations (48.8%/51.9%) and consensus (49%/53.5%). Note that, we did not make any adjustments in our ‘25F.
Maintain BUY on AMRT with TP of IDR3,050, which implies 34.9x ‘25F P/E or at +1stdev of its 5 years’ mean P/E. Currently, AMRT is trading at 25.3x ‘25F P/E or slightly below its 5 years’ mean P/E.

Regards,
Andre Suntono – KBVS Research Team