Automotive - Toyota continue its domination in May25

Automotive - Toyota continue its domination in May25 Indonesia's automotive market experienced a significant upswing in May 2025, with wholesale vehicle sales climbing 18.4% to 60,613 units, a healthy increase from April's 51,205 units. Amidst intensifying competition, Toyota firmly held its leading position, according to the latest data released by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). In a notable shift, Mitsubishi surpassed Honda to claim a stronger market standing during the same period. (Source : kumparan) Comment : Indonesia 4W sales soaring 18.4% MoM in May25 on low based effect. Total Astra 27.8% mom, while non astra 7.9% yoy. The May25 sales mainly driven by astra product which made market share rose to 56.9% compared to 52.7%. The 4.2% lower market share of non-astra were mainly driven by the sharp drop of sales from BYD & Denza (-20.4% mom) and Suzuki (-5.4% mom). On the flip of coin, Wuling, Cherry and Mitsubishi were meaningfully help the total non-astra sales. Meanwhile, in the same period astra reported a solid growth on low based effect across its car portfolio, except for UD Trucks. On cumulative basis, 5M25 4W sales still under pressure (-5.5% yoy). Despite recorded lower, ASII remain leading the market competition with market share 54% (5M24: 56%). Amid the continuing pressure on prolonged uncertainty and softer spending confidence, in all 5M25 4W sales arrive in line with our '25F total industry car sales at a run-rate of 37.0%/38.8%. Maintain our overweight stance for auto sector and BUY for ASII with SOTP TP IDR5,850 (7.3x ‘25F P/E), while currently trade at 5.8x ‘25F P/E or slightly above its -1SD of 5.3x.